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the best man won"t always win
美国研究学者通过对近50年来各类大型比赛结果的研究后发现，参赛选手在比赛中越是最后出场，获得冠军的可能性就越大。
the best way to come first is to go last. an analysis of almost 50 years of competitions - including eurovision song contests and world skating championships - has found that contestants are more likely to win if they are among the last to appear before the judges.
要想获得比赛冠军，你最好最后一个出场!美国研究学者通过对近50年来各类大型比赛结果的研究后发现，参赛选手在比赛中越是最后出场，获得冠军的可能性就越大。这项研究结果似乎为那些最优秀的选手却有可能输掉比赛的情况提供了某些科学依据。
据英国《每日电讯报》2月20日报道，致力于“社会与分类科学”研究的美国卡内因梅隆大学的万迪·布鲁恩博士对近50年来的各类大型比赛，特别是对1957年至2003年的欧洲音乐大赛和1994年至2000年的世界或欧洲花样滑冰锦标作了详细的调查研究。布鲁恩发现，在欧洲音乐大赛中，最后出场选手的取胜几率要比第1位选手的高出一倍，通常情况下，第1位选手的取胜几率只有6%，而最后一位选手可达到13%;同样，在花样滑冰锦标赛的第1轮中，即使选手出场的顺序是随机产生的，但比赛的结果却很富有戏剧性：最后一位出场选手取胜的几率高达14%，而第1名选手仅为3%。
布鲁恩的研究结果显示，比赛中越早出场的选手获胜的几率越低。一场比赛中，第1位出场选手取胜的几率比第2名低2%，第2名又比第3名低2%……对此，布鲁恩表示：“这种现象将对选手的成绩产生严重的影响。人们总在关心是哪位选手最后夺冠，但却很少有人注意到出场顺序对他们最后成绩的影响。”
布鲁恩还指出，尽管比赛的评判方式各有不同(如滑冰比赛的评委在每位选手表演完后直接给分;欧洲音乐大赛从1998年开始要所有选手都出场后才进行评分)，评判过程也受到包括种族偏见在内的众多因素的影响，但结果却是一致的：随着比赛的进行，选手的得分大都呈直线上升。
布鲁恩说：“当评委在比较选手的表现时，他们总是不自觉地留意选手发挥出的独特的表现。我发现，评委印象最深的总是那些他们刚刚看到的独特的表现。以花样滑冰为例，第1位选手完成了一个出色的趾尖旋转动作，而第2位选手完成了一个很漂亮的“八字环”动作。这时，评委的注意力就会集中在“八字环”上，并把第1位选手所做的“八字环”动作的`质量与第2位的进行比较，结果他们往往是忘记了第1位选手精彩的趾尖旋转动作。同时，除了评判的因素外，选手自身的心理素质也影响着他们的成绩。选手的出场顺序越是靠后，他们就越有可能发挥出色，因为当他们看见其他选手的表现后，更容易激发他们击败对方的决心和信心。”
布鲁恩的研究成果刊登在了美国最新一期的科学杂志《心理行为》上。
英国伦敦城市大学心理学高级讲师、决策学专家罗伯特·哈德曼称赞布鲁恩的研究成果很有意义，并指出选手出场顺序对于他们成绩的影响缘于人类记忆力的局限性。哈德曼说：“当人们对不同的事物作比较时，往往不能同时记住众多事物不同的优点，而是容易将注意力集中到自己最后关注到的事物的优点上。”。哈德曼还说，对于最先上场的选手，评委无法将他们的表现和其他人的进行比较，所以给分时会很谨慎;随着比赛的进行，评委们很容易将后面选手的表现与前面的进行比较，给出的分数就会相对宽松，因为这时评委对自己的评判更有把握。
然而，对于布鲁恩的研究结果也有人表示反对。曾在1963年至1968年5次蝉联欧洲花样滑冰锦标赛的冠军、现任英国国家滑冰协会主席萨利·斯特普利弗德表示，正规比赛的评委都经过了严格的训练，一般不会作出不准确的评判。她说：“如果评委经过了专门训练且经验丰富，布鲁恩研究中的那些情况是不会发生的。评委们通常会对每位选手的关键动作作出迅速的记录，所以那些得分最低的选手，确实是表现最差的选手。”
the best way to come first is to go last. an analysis of almost 50 years of competitions - including eurovision song contests and world skating championships - has found that contestants are more likely to win if they are among the last to appear before the judges.
the study by an american university appears to provide scientific proof that the best man, or woman, does not always win.
it found that, on average, the last competitor to appear in the eurovision song contest was more than twice as likely to win as the one who went on first. the first candidate had only a six per cent chance of winning, compared with a 13 per cent chance for the final contestant.
the first rounds of figure-skating championships, for which the running order is selected at random, yielded more dramatic results. the final skater had a 14 per cent chance of victory, making him or her more than four times as likely to win as the first skater, who had just a three per cent chance of winning.
the study showed a gradual worsening of chances for contestants who appeared earlier in the running order. a candidate who appears first in a contest is two per cent less likely to win than one who appears second. a candidate who appears second is two per cent less likely to win than one who appears third, and so on.
dr wandi bruine de bruin, from carnegie mellon university in pittsburgh, the author of the study, said: "this effect can have serious implications for the careers of performers.
"most of the attention goes to the winner and you wouldn"t want to come in second just because of your place in the programme."
the findings are published in the march issue of acta psychologica, a scientific journal.
robert hardman, a senior lecturer in psychology at london metropolitan university who specialises in the science of decision-making, said that the results were intriguing. he suggested that the effect was caused by the limitations of the human memory.
"when people make comparisons, they aren"t really capable of making a lot of fine-grade discrimination. when candidates appear at the beginning of a contest, judges have little to compare them to and are perhaps wary of the scores they give," he said.
"later on, when judges are able to compare the candidates to those that have gone before, they might give more extreme marks because they feel more confident about their judgments."
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